The front lines of the widening confrontation between the United States and China stretch from the halls of the United Nations to the island nations of the South Pacific. Yet, as in any great geopolitical game, certain countries carry more significance than others for American interests—foremost among them India. As Asia’s other emerging power, India could act as a crucial counterweight to Chinese influence, both in the region and outside it. That’s why Washington has been courting New Delhi with gusto.
Biden’s Ambitious Indo-Pacific Plans
President Joe Biden has grand plans to cement the U.S. position in the Indo-Pacific, which encompasses South Asia, East Asia, and the western Pacific, through a range of diplomatic, economic, and security initiatives. India could play a determining part in their success or failure. Whether India can be counted on to support the U.S. is an open question.
Historical Distrust and Differences
Historically, relations between the two countries have been marred by deep distrust and sharp differences. That legacy weighs on the relationship to this day. But more important is the mercurial nature of Indian foreign policy, which has been a hallmark of the nation’s sense of its place in the world since its formation in 1947.
India’s Complex Foreign Policy
One moment, India’s leaders appear aligned with Washington; the next, they march off in their own direction, sometimes to parley with America’s enemies. This unpredictability stems from India’s complex foreign policy philosophy, known as “non-alignment” or “multi-alignment.” India has consistently sought to maintain strategic autonomy and not get entangled in any alliance, stemming from its role as a founder of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).
India’s Balancing Act
India’s positioning is often a delicate balancing act. It needs to safeguard its security interests, diversify its economic partnerships, and maintain its status as a regional power while avoiding antagonizing its neighbors or major global players, including China and the U.S. This pragmatism leads to shifts in alignment, which can be perplexing for international observers.
The U.S.-India Relationship
For the United States, fostering a robust partnership with India is a strategic imperative in the Indo-Pacific. As the world’s largest democracy, India’s cooperation aligns with American values and interests in upholding democracy and the rules-based international system. The U.S. sees India as a critical player in the region’s security, economic stability, and the containment of China’s influence.
Evolving Dynamics
The dynamics of the U.S.-India relationship have evolved in recent years. The two countries have engaged in various dialogues and collaborations, from defense and trade to counterterrorism and space cooperation. In 2021, the U.S. welcomed India’s two-year term on the UN Security Council and supports India’s aspiration for permanent membership in a reformed Security Council.
India’s Role in the Indo-Pacific
Together with Australia and Japan, the United States and India are part of the Quad grouping, aimed at promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific region. India’s participation allows it to extend its influence in the Indo-Pacific, providing vaccines and economic initiatives, ultimately decreasing the region’s dependence on China’s economy.
Challenges and Uncertainties
However, India’s non-alignment policy, its historical non-engagement in military alliances, and its preference for strategic autonomy pose challenges. India’s approach to China and Russia, in particular, may not always align with the U.S. or its allies. This unpredictability can create uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific strategy.
The U.S.’s Perspective
From the U.S. perspective, encouraging India to play a more substantial role in the region is vital. Joint patrols with India in the South China Sea, infrastructure projects, and trade deals can help reduce China’s economic dominance in Southeast Asia. While India’s primary focus remains its neighborhood, its outreach to Southeast Asia contributes to undermining China’s influence, aligning with U.S. goals.
Conclusion
In the complex geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific, India stands as a pivotal player. Its evolving relationship with the United States carries potential for reshaping the region’s power dynamics. However, India’s diplomatic pragmatism and quest for strategic autonomy introduce uncertainties. The U.S. seeks to harness India’s influence to counterbalance China’s rise, but India’s intricate foreign policy means that its support may not always be straightforward. The future of this relationship will depend on both countries’ ability to navigate these complexities.
